Trading Recommendations and Trade Review for GBP/USD on September 10. No Inflation — Slow Crawl

The GBP/USD pair continued a languid, weak upward move on Wednesday. A new ascending trendline has formed, but it would not be hard to break if needed. Market activity is minimal, volatility is tiny, and the pound's rise is clearly corrective. Traders have not even managed to clear Senkou Span B yet. Thus, the hourly technical picture points to a fairly likely pullback.

Should we expect the US dollar to strengthen? For that, tomorrow's US inflation report would need to print above forecasts, and next week the Federal Reserve would need to raise the key rate or at least indicate readiness to tighten further. The problem for the dollar now is that the market trusts Kevin Warsh's words less and less. Warsh has promised all summer to "work on inflation," yet the Fed has taken no decisive steps to tame CPI. The market still prices in two hikes this year, but we see no solid reason for even one. If US labor conditions improve and inflation re-accelerates, tightening odds would rise — but not in September.

Technically, the pound has completed a downtrend because the trendline was breached. Price may continue attempts to overcome the Senkou Span B, the bears' last support. If that line is overcome, traders will have confirmation of a transition to an uptrend on the hourly timeframe.

On the 5-minute TF on Wednesday, three sell signals formed. Price bounced three times from Senkou Span B, allowing traders to open at least two short trades during the day. In none of those cases did the pair reach the nearest target — the Kijun-sen line — due to weak volatility.

COT reports for the pound show non-commercial traders have dominated with short positions for several months. The net position is negative despite the long-term uptrend. Given events in the Middle East, strong demand for the dollar in the first half of 2026 was unsurprising. The war is not formally over, and only geopolitics could support the dollar in the near term. However, until price closes below the trendline, we would not expect a sustained sharp decline in the pair.

In the long term, the dollar continues to weaken due to Trump's policies, as seen on the weekly TF. The trade war will persist in one form or another, and Trump's policy tends to weaken the US currency. The long-term uptrend for the pound remains, as shown by the trendline. According to the latest COT (Sept 1), Non-commercials closed 8,200 BUYs and 3,100 SELLs, so the non-commercial net position decreased by 5,100 contracts that week.

On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD has begun a new upward trend. In the medium and long term, sterling remains biased to the upside, so we believe further gains are logical in most scenarios. We still see no strong reasons for a prolonged and significant rise in the US dollar, and recent key US releases have not provided the dollar with robust support. However, US inflation and the Fed and Bank of England meetings lie ahead.

For September 10 we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. The Ichimoku lines Senkou Span B (1.3563) and Kijun-sen (1.3524) may also provide signals. It is recommended to move the stop loss to breakeven after price moves 20 pips in the favorable direction. Ichimoku lines may shift intraday and should be considered when defining trading signals.

No major UK events are scheduled on Thursday; the US will publish only a few minor releases, notably PPI. With CPI due tomorrow, we do not expect the market to pay much attention to PPI.

Today, traders can open short positions with targets of 1.3520 and 1.3465-1.3480 if the price bounces off the Senkou Span B line once more. Long positions can be opened if they consolidate above the Senkou Span B line with targets of 1.3588 and 1.3671-1.3681.

Support and resistance price levels are thick red lines where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on COT charts shows the size of the net position of each category of traders.