Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Euro
The test of the 1.1355 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for a short position on the euro. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 1.1334.
The first half of the day for EUR/USD was marked by the continuation of the downward trend that has kept the pair under pressure for several weeks. There was virtually no economic data from the eurozone, leaving buyers without any meaningful support. Without domestic drivers, the single currency is forced to follow the external backdrop, which so far does not favor a recovery in the euro. The situation could become more difficult in the second half of the day when U.S. housing price and consumer confidence data are released. Under current conditions, the market views these indicators through the lens of Fed policy: if the figures come in above expectations, this will strengthen the position of those committee members who are in no hurry to cut interest rates, while the dollar will receive additional support. In my view, this is the context in which this data should be considered today.
The scheduled speeches by Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller also deserve particular attention. Both FOMC officials have recently demonstrated a tendency toward a more restrictive assessment of the monetary policy outlook, and the likelihood of a dovish surprise from them is low. Rather, their comments are likely to be consistent with previous signals about the need to continue combating inflation, as the economy itself remains in relatively good condition.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1353 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.1370. At 1.1370, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Any rise in the euro today should be viewed only as a correction. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: Today, I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.1338 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal higher. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1353 and 1.1370 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1338 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1322, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair could return at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: Today, I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1353 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal lower. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1338 and 1.1322 can be expected.
What the Chart Shows:
Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;Thick green line — the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further growth above this level is considered unlikely;Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;Thick red line — the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further decline below this level is considered unlikely;MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.Important. Beginner Forex traders need to be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally preferable to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is, from the outset, an unsuccessful strategy for an intraday trader.