Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the European Currency
The 1.1229 price level was tested when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 1.1206.
For the euro, today developed in a way the market usually does not expect when positive economic data are released. Industrial production in Germany increased by 2.0% in August, exceeding the forecast of 0.5%, but the single currency still lost ground against the dollar. Objectively, this result cannot outweigh what is happening across the Atlantic, where the bond market continues to attract capital and supports the dollar as the main asset for buying.
The key feature of the day is that U.S. Treasury yields, rather than European data, have the decisive influence. As long as yields remain high, any strengthening of the euro appears temporary, and buyers are reluctant to open positions without confirmation.
Attention will now shift to the minutes of the September Fed meeting, at which interest rates were raised. There is nothing else significant on the U.S. agenda, apart from the consumer credit report, which is unlikely to move prices. For the euro, this creates a mixed situation. A hawkish tone from policymakers will strengthen demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches the 1.1201 level (green line on the chart), with a target of rising toward 1.1228. At 1.1228, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can be expected following weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1187 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1201 and 1.1228 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1187 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1157, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair may return at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1201 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1187 and 1.1157 can be expected.
What Is Shown on the Chart:
Thin green line – indicates the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;Thick green line – indicates the expected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;Thin red line – indicates the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;Thick red line – indicates the expected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold areas into account.Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making trading decisions spontaneously based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.