Amazon increases spending, Apple cuts iPhone 18 production, while Ethereum and USD test markets' resilience

Tech giants are walking a tightrope. Amazon is committing a record $220 billion to AI development to preserve its megacorp status. Apple is facing buyer pushback on the high price of the iPhone 18 and is urgently scaling back production.

Middle East tensions are adding fuel to oil prices, while a strong dollar and inflation fears are putting traders on edge ahead of US macro releases. Crypto investors aren't having it easy either: Ethereum has fallen into the bears' grip, seeing ETF outflows and overt skepticism from whales.

In this note, we break down how the hunger for compute, consumer fatigue with costly gadgets, and global uncertainty are shaping new trends for investors.

Ethereum can't find a steady footing. A worrying setup has formed around the second-largest cryptocurrency: US spot funds have recorded nine consecutive trading days of net outflows, more tokens are flowing onto exchanges, and large holders, judging by derivatives data, are switching long exposure to shorts. All this is happening even as a record share of ETH is locked in staking.

On the surface, the logic should be simple: the more coins tied up for the long term, the fewer available to sell. But the market is telling a different story. To understand the source of pressure, we need to look at several data points.

On October 5, ETH traded near $2,698. The price then slid to a low of $2,474 and only recovered to about $2,507 by the close on October 10. A modest bounce appeared on Sunday, October 11 — so far more of a pause than a clear reversal.

The troubling run for funds started on September 29. By October 9, cumulative net outflows from US spot Ethereum ETFs hit $697.18 million, most of it concentrated in a single week. From October 5–9, funds lost $542.06 million.

Social media labeled the streak "record," but nuance matters: nine straight trading days of net outflows is painful but not unprecedented. BeInCrypto noted an identical nine-day run from June 17–30 earlier this year. In other words, history can repeat itself.

One fund bore the brunt. BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) saw roughly $477.1 million withdrawn over the week, about 88% of the total. The peak outflow came on October 6, when investors pulled $201.9 million in a single day. By October 9, daily outflows fell to $56.1 million — a reason for cautious relief. Pressure is clearly easing, though funds have not returned to net inflows.

Another important point: aggregate net asset declines of about $1.98 billion look alarming, but much of that reduction is due to ETH's price fall, not pure investor redemptions. The fund accounting amplifies the sense of panic.

Large players in futures appear to have made their move. Analyst Joao Vedson highlighted open interest trends: both 30-day and 180-day changes in Ethereum open interest are negative. The indicator comparing whales' positions to small investors' positions has also turned down.

In short, major traders have cut long positions and moved to short ones. Money that has recently bet on higher prices is now positioned to profit from declines.

Yet the futures market remains massive — total open interest sits near 10.58 million ETH. That is the main risk: at this scale, any sharp price move can trigger cascading forced liquidations. The mechanics are familiar — one chain of stops pulls the next, and the market can drop faster than fundamentals justify.

On-chain data bolsters the bearish case. Over the last seven days, net inflows of ETH to exchanges totaled 87,258, the highest two-week pace in recent memory. The seven-day average was roughly 375% above the 30-day average. In plain market language, more holders are shifting coins to venues where they can be sold.

At the same time, the fuel for buying is drying up. On Binance, the seven-day average net stablecoin outflow was $72.8 million. Cash is not flowing onto the exchange in search of bargains — it is leaving.

US buyer demand is weakening as well. Coinbase's premium index, a gauge of American buyers' willingness to pay up, fell to –0.11 on October 10 from –0.01 on October 5. Funding rates remained around 0.01. This detail matters: the current drop is driven less by mass liquidations and more by the gradual disappearance of buyers.

The paradox is that record staking is not protecting the price. Coins are indeed moving into long?term storage, but exchange supply is rising, institutional funds are losing money, and large traders are building short exposure.

So far, relief shows up in only one metric — ETF daily outflows have slowed. Other indicators do not provide convincing evidence of a turnaround.

The coming sessions will tell whether this lull is enough to bring buyers back or if the market will keep searching for a bottom.

The instruments discussed here are available to trade on the InstaForex platform. To monitor ETH and other assets in real time and enter positions at any moment, open an InstaForex trading account and download the broker's mobile app.

The market capitalization of Amazon has crossed the extraordinary $3 trillion mark for the first time in history. But behind that triumph lies a colossal financial engine that requires constant fueling.

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy is preparing an unprecedented plan: in 2026, the company will direct roughly $220 billion to capital expenditures. This is not just a dry number from a report — it is a declaration of all-out competition for dominance in artificial intelligence.

In July, the spending estimate stood at $200 billion, but market realities have adjusted the plan. "The higher cost of memory is pushing this number up from our prior estimate," Jassy admitted on a conference call.

Does that sound like an excuse? Not at all. Jassy stresses that even after pouring in a record $220 billion, the company will still face a shortage of compute capacity.

Moreover, Jassy says this technological "hunger" will persist through 2026 and into 2027. Realizing that carrying the burden alone is increasingly costly, Amazon is already actively courting external investors willing to co-fund AI infrastructure.

Why is Jassy so confident in these outlays, and why has the market reacted with enthusiasm? The answer lies in AWS, the cloud division now operating like a well-oiled machine. AWS revenue growth accelerated for a fifth consecutive quarter, showing the fastest pace in 18 quarters. The numbers are striking:

Jassy does not shy away from bold forecasts: in his view, AWS could eventually become a business with $1 trillion in annual revenue. Amazon's total quarterly revenue rose by 20% to about $200 billion.

Investors understandably swallow hard looking at those zeros and continue to debate the wisdom of such spending. But Jassy has switched to chief optimist mode. He says that the bulk of AWS investments should begin to generate tangible returns in 2027–2028.

Monday began with the US dollar firmly holding near one-and-a-half-year highs. As investors hunker down over the flare-up in the Middle East, markets are holding their breath ahead of the US inflation report, a release that could materially shift the Fed's policy path.

The oil market looks more like a minefield. Brent futures slipped by about 1% in the Asian session after US President Donald Trump's sensational Sunday statement about an "energy truce" between Russia and Ukraine.

However, it is too early to relax. Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen continued to sow chaos over the weekend, attacking two tankers and stepping up strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure.

Analysts warn that the Houthis will continue attacking Saudi energy sites. That will act as fuel for both oil prices and the dollar. Iran has reportedly received a peace overture from the US via intermediaries, but experts are skeptical — a quick breakthrough this week is unlikely.

The US dollar index (DXY) eased slightly at the start of the week to 102.14 but remains close to its 18-month high. Trading is running in a tight range — Japan's holiday has drained Asian liquidity.

All geopolitical drama pales beside the upcoming data releases. On Wednesday, the US will publish the September consumer price index (CPI) — the Fed's last major clue before the October meeting. Producer prices (PPI) follow on Thursday.

Recall that just last month, the Fed raised its policy rate for the first time since 2023. The market has since gotten markedly more cautious: the odds of a rate hold this month jumped from 51% to 81%. Labor market surprises added to the uncertainty — September's shockingly weak payrolls print showed only 29,000 jobs created and unemployment steady at 4.2%.

Has the dollar rally run out of steam? Barclays strategists think the greenback is due for a pause. They argue that recent bond sell-offs have tightened global financial conditions too much. If the upcoming CPI prints softer than expected, the Fed may be forced into a more dovish rhetorical stance to avoid destabilizing markets.

New flagship launches usually mean hype, long lines, and early shortages. However, autumn 2026 is writing a different script. Nikkei Asia reports that Apple has run into an unexpected problem: its most expensive handsets, the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, are literally sitting on shelves. The culprit, unsurprisingly, is price.

Memory-chip costs have risen globally, forcing Apple to raise prices on its new flagship models. The iPhone 18 Pro now starts at $1,199, while the Pro Max begins at $1,299 — $100 more than the iPhone 17 Pro, which launched on September 18. That price move appears to have critically hit buyer loyalty.

According to Nikkei insiders, Apple cut component orders for both Pro models by 15–20% in October versus original plans. The company also began taking a more cautious approach to supply planning as far back as early September.

"In October alone, we are seeing orders from Apple reducing by 15 percent to 20 percent for both the premium models; we don't know how things would develop from here," a supplier executive told the publication. The sharp drop in demand from the tech giant has already forced some partners to scale back production in October, while forecasts for November remain unclear.

Analysts are raising alarms: average delivery times for the iPhone 18 Pro have started to shorten rapidly across more than 30 markets. Experts call this a growing cause for concern — the price jump has increased demand elasticity, meaning many buyers are simply unwilling to pay more for upgrades.

Markets reacted immediately. Last Friday, in premarket trading, Apple shares slipped by about 1.6%, and some estimates tracked by Barron's put the drop closer to 2%. That's a meaningful pullback, especially given that shares had closed just shy of an all-time high on September 25.

Reuters has not yet independently verified the reports, with Apple declining to comment.

The Apple episode clearly demonstrates how macro forces, supply chains, and pricing strategies at tech giants can create powerful, unpredictable trends in equity markets. For investors, that volatility presents trading opportunities.

The instruments discussed in this note are available to trade on the InstaForex platform. To stay on top of market moves, react to news in real time, and potentially profit, open an InstaForex trading account and download the mobile app.