A price test at 1.3230 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to sell the pound. As a result, the pair fell toward the target area of 1.3207.
The pound again ceded ground to the dollar. The US currency rose after Beth Hammack's remarks, and GBP/USD fell, as did other risk assets. Importantly, Hammack spoke not only about inflation but also about the labor market. US unemployment remains around 4.2%, stable and near maximum employment. According to Hammack, that gives the Federal Reserve room not to rush easing. At the same time, she judged financial conditions neutral despite rising yields and stressed that the path will depend on data, and that a deteriorating labor market would require a response.
The UK calendar today centers on one event: a speech by Bank of England MPC member Swati Dhingra, and her stance on inflation and rates may set the pound's direction before midday. This matters for GBP/USD because, after yesterday's fall, the pair sits near the lower boundary of the sideways channel, with little cushion for buyers.
For the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario 1: Buy the pound today near entry point 1.3227 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.3241 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3241, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35 pip move from that level). Expect pound gains today only as a correction. Important: before buying, ensure MACD is above zero and only beginning to rise from it.
Scenario 2: Also consider buying if price tests 1.3217 twice while MACD is in the oversold area. That would limit downside potential and trigger a reversal upward. Expect moves to the opposite levels 1.3227 and 1.3241.
Scenarios to sellScenario 1: Plan to sell the pound after it breaks 1.3217 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a swift decline. Sellers' key target is 1.3202, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 pip reversal from that level). Bad news would restore pressure on the pound. Important: before selling, ensure MACD is below zero and only beginning to decline from it.
Scenario 2: Also consider selling if price tests 1.3227 twice while MACD is in the overbought area. That would limit upside potential and trigger a reversal downward. Expect declines toward the opposite levels of 1.3217 and 1.3202.
Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.
Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.
Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.