Now let us move on to the wars that can actually be called "wars." Even if that label requires a stretch. In spring 2025 there was another escalation in relations between India and Pakistan. Note that this conflict has also dragged on for many years, with regular border shootings that are hardly a full-scale war. In spring last year, the sides exchanged missile strikes, but on May 10 they signed a truce that Trump also added to his list of victories. Delhi said Trump did not participate in the peace talks, and the cessation of hostilities was achieved through direct talks with Pakistan.
The next case is the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. In July 2025 military clashes began on the border, then the two countries agreed to a truce under Trump's projection, and a month and a half later fighting resumed.
On August 8, 2025, Trump "ended" another conflict—between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Yet Azerbaijan had gained full control over Nagorno-Karabakh back in 2023, and in the following two years the parties were working on settling disputed issues. In other words, peace talks had begun long before Donald Trump returned to the US presidency.
Thus, in four of the eight cases the peace was short-lived, and the conflicts persist today. In two cases there was no war at all, and in two cases the United States formally took part in securing peace, but it is doubtful that these successes can be attributed personally to Trump. Broadly speaking, the US president has not really stopped any war. Instead, he has unleashed a full-scale war with Iran and failed to "end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours." So in practice Trump today more often fuels conflicts than finishes them.
Personally, I had not previously thought about which wars Trump claims to have ended. When I dug up the facts, I was surprised, because I knew nothing about most of these disputes. And I doubt any of my readers had heard of the Thailand-Cambodia clash. In short, Trump continues to act in his usual fashion. If a conflict can be halted for two days, then "Trump ended the war." If it restarts, he can end it again, and that makes two wars ended. Conflicts that never began can be "prevented," and the list can be expanded with new entries.
Other articles to read:
- EUR/USD analysis. October 20: Euro and pound ready to square off with USD
- Eight wars Donald Trump says he ended
Wave picture for EUR/USD
Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude the instrument remains within a global corrective A-B-C-D-E segment. However, this structure now appears fully formed and may be concluding. In my view this is a good time not only to buy the euro but also to expect a full bullish leg of the trend. On the higher timeframe, we should expect a rise at least into the 1.17–1.18 area. The failed breakout at 1.1126, equal to 50.0% on Fibonacci (lower chart, higher timeframe), also signals market readiness to buy.
Wave picture for GBP/USD
The wave picture for GBP/USD has become fairly clear. Charts show a distinct A-B-C corrective structure that may be complete. A similar structure on EUR/USD may also be finishing. If that assumption holds, sterling has concluded the decline that puzzled many traders in recent weeks. In that case the pound could begin not only a corrective wave but also a full bullish leg with targets above the peaks of waves B and D—i.e., above the 1.37 area. I consider now a good time to build long-term.
Core principles of my analysis:
1) Wave structures should be simple and comprehensible. Complex structures are hard to trade and frequently change.
2) If you are not confident about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.
3) There is never 100% certainty about direction; do not forget protective stop-loss orders.
4) Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.