Today, oil pulled back slightly after a sharp rise last week. Brent fell to about $114 a barrel after jumping to a six-month high, while WTI trades below $101. A week earlier, oil had risen roughly 6%.
Note that Brent is up more than 85% year-to-date because the Middle East war has disrupted supplies and dragged in Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis, who strike Saudi Arabia. Over the weekend, fighting continued between Houthi forces and Saudi units. The Houthis said they struck King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh in response to Saudi strikes on Sana'a and other parts of Yemen, raising risks to energy flows. Washington ordered expanded evacuations of diplomats across the region.
As for Washington and Tehran, rhetoric remains familiar. Trump said a "time to decide" is approaching — to strike a deal with Tehran or "finish it off" — hinting that strikes could resume after the November 3 midterms. Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi replied that, with a rational approach, the U.S. would not dare attack. Iran, however, said it is ready to respond, including against Israel and the United Arab Emirates.
Physical flows remain relatively resilient. Middle East oil shipments have recovered to nearly pre-war levels, including via the Strait of Hormuz, despite attacks on vessels. U.S. Central Command says more than 1.5 billion barrels have transited the strait since summer with U.S. assistance, while U.S. forces also block Iranian ports. Many experts nonetheless believe the market is pricing in escalation risk after the U.S. elections, when Washington will be less constrained by the political cost of high oil, which keeps prices elevated even as flows improve.
Several upcoming events could move the market: Israeli elections on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve rate decision, and the U.S. midterms in early November. Each adds uncertainty, since expensive oil keeps inflation and rates elevated.
All this suggests the recent oil pullback looks technical rather than fundamental. While Washington and Tehran remain in a mode of threats and the Houthis keep striking Saudi targets, Brent should stay biased upward, and a drop below $110 looks unlikely. A sharp reversal is possible only if talks with Iran make real progress.
On the technical picture, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $101. That would set up a target at $105, above which a breakout will be fairly difficult. The farther target is around $109. On a decline, bears will try to seize control of $98. If that succeeds, a range break would deal a serious blow to bulls and push Oil to a $95 low, with the prospect of extending to $92.