The test of the 1.3368 price level occurred just as the MACD indicator was beginning to move down from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for a short position on the pound. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 1.3346.
The pound fell during the first half of the day following a classic pattern. First, the market had no significant UK economic data to consider. Then, the price broke through a major support level that had held the pair since the previous week, immediately triggering buyers' stop-loss orders placed below it. The cascade of stop-loss orders turned an ordinary decline into a sharp drop, as the forced closure of long positions accelerated the move. For GBP/USD to recover, the price needs not only to return above the broken support zone but also to establish itself there and hold above it on a retest. Otherwise, selling pressure is likely to persist.
The second half of the day is expected to be quiet for the pound, as no US economic data releases are scheduled and no Fed officials are due to speak. As a result, the Middle East remains the main market driver. The US war with Iran continues to put pressure on oil prices and support the dollar. This environment is unfavorable for the British currency, as high oil prices fuel inflation, which had already reached 3.5% in September. Meanwhile, the GfK consumer confidence index fell to -24 on Friday. Without fresh catalysts from the United States, GBP/USD is likely to follow oil prices and overall sentiment toward the dollar.
As for the intraday trading strategy, the focus will be on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: The pound can be bought today if the price reaches the entry area around 1.3355 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3375 (the thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3375, the long position can be closed and a short position opened in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points away from that level. The pound's upward potential today is limited to a modest upward correction. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: The pound can also be bought today if the price tests 1.3341 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3355 and 1.3375 can then be expected.
Sell SignalScenario No. 1: The pound can be sold today after the price breaks below 1.3341 (the red line on the chart), potentially triggering a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' main target is 1.3321, where the short position can be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points away from that level. Strong selling pressure on the pound is likely to return if the situation in the Middle East deteriorates. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: The pound can also be sold today if the price tests 1.3355 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3341 and 1.3321 can then be expected.
Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental data releases, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden exchange-rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially when large position sizes are used without proper money management.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.