NASDAQ 100 (NDX): Fed and tech earnings will decide whether the correction deepens

In early US trading on Monday, October 26, 2026, NASDAQ100 futures (NDX) trade around 29,100, trying to stabilize after a week of selling that pulled the index from October record highs back toward mid-September lows. The market awaits two key events: the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon, which together will determine whether the tech sector gets a breather or the correction deepens.

Market situation

NDX closed last week at 28,957.53, down about 0.8% over five sessions. Since early October the index has retreated more than 4% from all-time highs as concerns about the returns on massive AI infrastructure investments have risen.

AI investment worries remain the principal source of pressure. Debate continues over whether multibillion-dollar capex by tech giants will pay off. Meta last week announced plans to raise capex, reviving fears of debt-funded AI expansion. The Philadelphia semi index plunged 6.72% on Thursday — the worst day since June — and CoreWeave lost more than 10%, hitting a low not seen since May 2025.

Oil and geopolitics create a mixed backdrop. Easing of the immediate threat of US strikes on Iran after Trump said no attacks were planned on Sunday pushed oil back, supporting risk appetite early in the week. But Strait of Hormuz tensions persist and high energy prices keep inflationary pressure elevated.

Treasury yields remain a key variable. The 10-year yield holds near 4.97–5.00% after a sharp fall on Thursday driven by risk-off in tech. Lower yields theoretically support growth valuations, but the move reflected fear rather than hope of Fed easing.

Brief technical analysis

InstaForex aggregated daily technicals show a "strong sell": 20 of 23 indicators favor shorts. The short-term picture is also bearish, though hourly-frame oversold signals raise the risk of a technical bounce. On the daily chart, the price has approached a key mid-term support at 28,850 (EMA144 and the lower boundary of a rising channel), where a rebound could occur if fundamentals improve.

- RSI (14) on D1 is near 38, approaching oversold but not yet there—signalling sustained selling pressure but potential for short-term exhaustion.

- OsMA confirms the bearish trend; the histogram shows no reversal yet.

- Stochastic (9,6) sits in oversold territory.

EMA 50, 144, and 200:

- H1 EMA200 = 29,560: price is well below, confirming short-term bearish control.

- H4 EMA200 = 29,900: key resistance—a break above would be needed to flip the short-term trend.

- D1 EMA50 = 29,780, EMA144 = 28,850, EMA200 = 28,180: price trades between the 50- and 144-day EMAs, indicating loss of medium-term bullish momentum; a break below 28,850 would open the path to 28,180.

- W1 EMA50 = 27,650: long-term support remains well below.

Key events to watch

Tuesday, Oct 27—US consumer confidence index. A weak print could reinforce growth concerns and weigh on tech.

Wednesday, Oct 28, 18:00 GMT — FOMC meeting. The market largely expects a hold, but the statement and Warsh's press conference are the focus. Any hawkish tilt on December hikes will add pressure to NASDAQ100; a dovish tone would give the index a chance to bounce.

Wednesday, Oct 28 (after the close)—Alphabet and Microsoft earnings. Deutsche Bank calls these reports a critical test of recent AI-related fears. Investors will watch revenue and capex plans. Strong results and upbeat guidance could restore risk appetite; disappointment would deepen the sell-off.

Thursday, Oct 29, 12:30 GMT — US preliminary Q3 GDP and PCE. Consensus: GDP +3.2%, core PCE 3.1% y/y. Strong prints would reinforce December hike odds and pressure growth stocks.

Thursday, Oct 29 (after the close)—Amazon and Intel earnings. Amazon will shed light on consumer demand and the cloud, and Intel on semiconductor competitiveness.

Conclusion and recommendations

NASDAQ100 is vulnerable, wedged between oversold conditions and structural AI concerns. Key levels: bulls 29,560 (H1 EMA200), bears 28,850 (D1 EMA144), and critical zone 28,180 (D1 EMA200).

For short-term traders:

- Consider shorts on a sustained break below 28,850 with targets 28,750–28,200 and a stop-loss above 29,310.

- Consider longs on a sustained break above 29,310 with targets 29,560–29,780, though resistance in this band may demand extra impetus.

- Monitor FOMC (Oct 28) and Alphabet/Microsoft (Oct 28) closely—these are key triggers.

For medium-term investors:

- A pullback to 28,180–28,400 could be used to cautiously add long exposure while retaining a constructive long-term view on tech, but the uncertainty around AI returns requires prudence.

Risk management:

- Expect elevated volatility around the FOMC and earnings season.

- Use strict stop-losses, especially on breakout trades.

- Watch bond yields, oil prices, and tech companies' comments on capex.

This overview is based on open sources and media reports and reflects price dynamics analysis dependent on many factors. Risk management and position control are essential.