XAU/USD – Price Analysis and Forecast: Gold Continues to Decline

On Thursday, gold (XAU/USD) came under renewed selling pressure, with prices falling below $4,030 and ending a three-day advance that had culminated in the week's high the previous day.The US dollar recovered some of its losses following Wednesday's corrective decline after the Federal Reserve's (Fed) meeting and is now exerting the main pressure on the precious metal. As markets expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at its October meeting. The decision received 10 votes in favor, while two officials—Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack—voted for a 25-basis-point rate hike. At the press conference, Fed officials emphasized that they continue to monitor persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. Concerns that rising energy prices could fuel inflation are strengthening expectations of further monetary policy tightening. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, market participants currently assign an approximately 80% probability to a rate hike at the December meeting. This hawkish stance is supporting demand for the US dollar and contributing to outflows from gold.

The risk of further escalation in the Middle East is providing additional support for the US dollar, which is traditionally regarded as a safe-haven asset. On Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that US officials had urged several Arab states in the Persian Gulf to prepare for a short but intensive military operation against Iran, potentially following the November 3 midterm elections. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the country's armed forces were prepared to defend Iran, adding that Tehran would maintain close contact with mediators to preserve opportunities for a diplomatic solution. Regional mediators led by Qatar are seeking to resume negotiations between the United States and Iran and prevent further escalation. In addition, reports indicate that US Vice President J.D. Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, in an effort to bring the parties back to peaceful dialogue.

Geopolitical uncertainty remains high. In Yemen, intense clashes continue between the Iran-backed Houthi movement and government forces supported by Saudi Arabia. On Tuesday, the Houthis claimed to have attacked Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura oil refinery, the country's largest facility of its kind, with a ballistic missile. Earlier this week, strikes on pumping stations along Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline heightened concerns about potential supply disruptions and supported crude oil prices. This, in turn, favors US dollar bulls and suggests that gold's downward trend may persist. To identify more favorable trading opportunities, it is advisable to wait for the release of key US macroeconomic indicators: the advance estimate of third-quarter GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.From a technical perspective, XAU/USD is trading below key moving averages on the daily chart, indicating that bears remain in control. The oscillators are in negative territory, confirming their advantage. To ease the bearish pressure, bulls need to push prices above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA). However, the nearest resistance is at the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA). On the other hand, the pair is attempting to hold the $4,025 level, while the psychological $4,000 mark could provide significant support, followed by the monthly low. A decisive break below this low would confirm the dominance of the bearish structure and create conditions for a deeper decline over the coming trading sessions.