Today, Bitcoin is trying to hold above its 100-day moving average, which has climbed to $76,548. The market is entering a week with heavy baggage. October closed down 7.3%, marking the weakest month for Bitcoin since 2014. The held moving average is now acting as buyers' last line of defense, and the coming days will show whether it will hold as elections, labor market data, and earnings from tech giants hit the market.
US midterm elections are tomorrow, and market participants assign a 93.6% probability that Democrats will take control of the House. Donald Trump has already pledged to use his veto power if Democrats obtain a majority, so a political stalemate in Washington is the baseline scenario. The historical record looks uncomfortable. Bitcoin finished the fourth quarter down in each of the last three election years, losing 17.3% in 2014, 43.5% in 2018 and 14.8% in 2022, and all three periods coincided with bear markets. Those drawdowns are an opportunity for those who sold long ago and are now waiting for an entry point. Late buyers using leverage lose out, as their positions are flushed on the way down.
There is a counterargument. On average, Bitcoin gained more than 50% in the twelve months after midterm elections.
Macro data adds uncertainty. Tuesday will bring September job openings, and Friday the October employment report, where the forecast is for 65,000 new jobs after 29,000 in September, when economists had expected 84,000. A weak print raises the odds of dovish signals from the Fed, which supports liquidity and appetite for risk assets, including Bitcoin. This week Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will speak, and their tone could shift expectations before Friday.
A third source of risk comes from the technology sector. About 20% of S&P 500 companies will report in the coming days, and Apple and Palantir will publish results after the close on Monday. Last week delivered a tech selloff on disappointing guidance, which revived doubts about the returns on artificial intelligence investments. The market is now highly sensitive to news from that sector, so negative data could easily pull Bitcoin and Ether down again.
Bitcoin
The price is trading in a narrow range between nearest support at $77,800 and nearest resistance at $78,300, so the plan is built around two mirror directions with a full set of scenarios for breakouts and rejections. I consider two options for buying. If the price holds above $78,300, provided it remains above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero, the target is $79,000, where profits should be taken and a short on the pullback may be considered. If a downside breakout is not confirmed and price bounces from $77,800 after a false move, then a buy targets $78,300 and then the same outer objective at $79,000.
Sell scenarios are merged into one. A close below $77,800, provided the 50-day moving average is above price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero, opens a short with a target of $77,000. If an upside breakout does not hold and the price is rejected at $78,300, then a sell target is $77,800 and then lower, toward $77,000.
Ether
The logic mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale, with the nearest support at $2,276 and the nearest resistance at $2,288. A buy is considered on a hold above $2,288, provided the price is above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero, with a target of $2,305, where profits are taken and a short on the pullback may be allowed. If a false downside breakout is not confirmed and the price bounces from $2,276, then a buy goes to $2,288 and then to $2,305.
A sell is opened on a close below $2,276, provided the moving average is above price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero, with a target of $2,250. If an upside breakout does not hold and the price is rejected at $2,288, then a sell goes to $2,276 and then lower to $2,250. Both indicators remain filters to screen out false moves rather than standalone entry signals, and decisions are made only after price has actually confirmed the indicated levels.