The test of the 1.1201 price level occurred just as the MACD indicator was beginning to move upward from the zero line. This confirmed that the entry point for buying the euro was appropriate, although the pair failed to make any substantial gains.
The euro may face additional pressure during the US trading session, as stronger labor market data could give the US dollar an opportunity to appreciate. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report is due, with a modest increase in job openings forecast to 7.11 million from 7.08 million. If the number of job openings exceeds expectations, traders may conclude that demand for workers remains strong and that the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to ease its policy stance. Factory orders are also due, with a 1.2% increase forecast, along with the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, which is expected to come in at 46.2, down from 46.8. A reading below 50 indicates that pessimism outweighs optimism, so a further decline in the index is likely to be a relatively neutral factor for the US dollar. The main event of the day remains the US midterm elections. Around 57 million people had voted early ahead of Election Day, with turnout higher than at the same stage in 2022. In the 27 states with party registration, Democrats accounted for approximately 43% of early ballots, compared with around 32% for Republicans. However, control of Congress may not be determined for several days, until all votes have been counted across every state.
As for the intraday strategy, the focus will be primarily on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: The euro can be bought today if the price reaches the 1.1196 level (the green line on the chart), with an upward target of 1.1223. At 1.1223, the plan is to close the position and then sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Further euro gains today may be expected if US economic data are weaker than anticipated. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just begun to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.1175 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and could trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1196 and 1.1223 can then be expected.
Sell SignalScenario No. 1: The plan is to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1175 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1153, where the position will be closed and a buy position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move upward from that level. Renewed pressure on the pair is likely if US economic data are stronger than forecast. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just begun to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.1196 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and could trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1175 and 1.1153 can then be expected.
Important: Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions with great caution. It is generally best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental data releases to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, particularly if risk management rules are not followed and large position sizes are used.
It is also important to remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.