Bitcoin continues to decline, and the current movement can already be considered another phase of the downtrend that began last year. This week, the market experienced another sharp decline, although immediately after the US Congressional elections, "digital gold" had posted solid gains. At present, the movement is considered corrective. However, Bitcoin is continuing to move lower despite regular rebounds. It should be noted that the possibility of the downtrend having ended cannot be ruled out. Nevertheless, the reasons for the emergence of a new bullish trend remain ambiguous and open to debate.
Bitcoin's latest three-month rally was essentially a move from the lower boundary of the sideways channel to its upper boundary on the daily timeframe. This movement followed the formation of a deviation below the channel's lower boundary and was accompanied by a deviation above its upper boundary. The deviation above the upper boundary was substantial, but if it was indeed a deviation, Bitcoin is now heading toward the $70,800 level. "Digital gold" has returned to the sideways channel, making a move toward its 50% level a logical and technically consistent development.
As already mentioned, immediately after the US Congressional elections, which the Democrats won, Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market posted solid gains. This once again contradicts the fundamental background, as the Democrats are likely to attempt to block Trump's latest efforts to pass the Clarity Act. Moreover, the Democrats support reducing government spending and may begin an open political confrontation with Donald Trump in Congress.
As a result, US economic growth could slow in the coming years. Under such conditions, investors tend to favor safe-haven assets. The US stock market has declined for several consecutive days, which also does little to improve sentiment among cryptocurrency traders. In our view, the fundamental background for Bitcoin deteriorated further this week. A long list of factors that clearly do not support Bitcoin's appreciation had already been identified. This week, that list became even longer. In addition, spot demand remains weak, while capital outflows from ETF products have been more frequent than inflows throughout 2026.
On the daily timeframe, the bearish trend structure has been broken. Therefore, "digital gold" has most likely officially entered a new bullish trend formation phase. Price reached the bearish FVG from the previous trend and reacted to this pattern, triggering the expected correction. However, the move beyond the 60,000–82,500 sideways channels in September may have been a deviation. Combined with the reactions to two bearish FVGs, this could trigger a decline toward the lower boundary of the sideways channel.
Bitcoin also retraced to the nearest bearish FVG and showed a clear reaction, forming a new sell signal.
The bearish trend structure continues to develop on the 4-hour timeframe. The CHOCH level is currently at $82,000. All the necessary bearish reversal signals have appeared on the daily timeframe, allowing traders to open short positions.
Bitcoin's targets are currently best determined using the sideways channel on the daily chart, which remains relevant in the current market structure. The trend structure is bearish on the 4-hour timeframe, while Bitcoin has reacted to another bearish pattern on the daily timeframe. The next decline followed shortly afterward.
BTC/USD Trading Recommendations
Bitcoin attempted to establish a new uptrend, but the fundamental background, spot demand, and latest news remain too weak to support its continuation. In the near term, Bitcoin may continue to decline on the daily timeframe, as price has reacted to two bearish FVGs and formed a bearish Order Block.
The move beyond the sideways channel on the daily chart is currently interpreted as a deviation. Thus, Bitcoin has generated a reversal signal and is heading toward the $70,800 level. The bearish trend is not considered complete. Short positions are currently more relevant than long positions.
Among the current patterns, the bearish FVG on the daily chart deserves particular attention, as a new sell signal formed near this area today. A new bearish FVG has also formed on the 4-hour timeframe. A reaction to this area could provide traders with an opportunity to open new short positions.
Explanations for the Charts:
CHOCH (Change of Character) – A break in the existing trend structure.Liquidity – Stop-loss orders and pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.FVG (Fair Value Gap) – An area of price inefficiency. Price moves through such areas very quickly, indicating a lack of participation from one side of the market. Subsequently, price tends to return to these areas and react to them in the direction of the prevailing trend.IFVG (Inversion Fair Value Gap) – An inverted area of price inefficiency. When price returns to such an area, it does not react to it but instead breaks through it with strong momentum and then retests it from the opposite side.OB (Order Block) – A candle associated with market-maker activity, where liquidity is collected to establish a position in the opposite direction.