Bitcoin bounced back to $75,000 after Wednesday's drop to $73,800.
The rebound was driven by dip buying. Nvidia shares fell by about 6% to $170.24, a level last seen on March 31, after reports that Jensen Huang may have been a target of Chinese intelligence, but later recouped some losses to $179.92. Beijing rejected the allegations. The market, however, chose not to sell off further, which supported gains in the Nasdaq Composite and in the crypto market, which has recently been highly correlated with the Nasdaq because of AI.
Oil provided additional support. WTI fell to $86.19/bbl, the lowest since September 1, before recovering to $88.20. The wider picture for Bitcoin is mixed. It remains trapped between the 21-week moving average at $73,100 and the 50-week moving average at $75,500. Many analysts see scope for a decline to the 200-week average around $67,800, which the price touched in mid-August. I believe that Bitcoin's muted response to the Nasdaq drop undermines the thesis of a flow of funds from AI stocks into crypto that was previously suggested. For now, as the tech sector retraces, capital is returning there rather than to digital assets. Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, $1.28 billion last week, remain a headwind.
US inflation data due today will set the direction. I see three scenarios for Bitcoin.
Soft print: if core CPI is 0.1% or headline CPI does not exceed 0.2%, the probability of a December hike will fall below 70%, and yields and the dollar will decline, giving Bitcoin a shot at breaking the 50-week average at $75,492 and reaching $75,691, the cost base of short-term holders. A push toward $79,300 would still be distant. I view any rally as partial, given ETF outflows and the Nasdaq correlation.
In-line print: if CPI matches consensus, the price will likely stay in the 73,078–75,492 corridor, and range traders will be the winners.
Hot print: if core CPI prints 0.3% or higher, the odds of a hike will rise back toward 85% and above, yields will climb, and Bitcoin will likely lose 73,078. The next target would be 67,755, with leverage in the market amplifying the move.
Technical analysis and recommendations:Bitcoin
The immediate upside target is $75,300. Clearing that level opens a path to $76,900 and then $78,500. A break above $78,500 would signal attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, buyers should emerge at $72,800. A drop below that could quickly push BTC toward $71,100, with a further target near $69,400.
Ethereum
Consolidation above $2,149 would open the path to $2,194. The next upside target would be $2,234. A break above that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected to step in at $2,084. A move below that level could send ETH toward $2,028, with a further target near $1,974.
What's on the chart:
Red levels show support/resistance where the price is expected to either slow or accelerate. Green line: 50-day moving average. Blue line: 100-day moving average. Light green line: 200-day moving average.Crosses or the price tests of these averages typically either halt a move or set a new market impulse.