Bitcoin continues to decline, and even sharply falling oil does not save it. Federal Reserve officials have recently pressured the market by strongly pushing back against high inflation. Now the probability of a 25-basis-point hike on December 9 has risen to 96.3%, up from 78.8% on Monday. The market prices a rate increase from 4.00% to 4.25%, so risk assets, including Bitcoin and Ether, are losing sharply.
As I noted above, oil did not help, although in theory it would reduce the chances of further upward price pressure. For now, Brent holds around $90 after Donald Trump signaled a pause in strikes on Iran. Recall that on Monday the oil decline supported stocks and returned Bitcoin above $75,000, but today that effect is not observed. Nasdaq-100 futures are falling after yesterday's rally, and because Bitcoin's correlation with US equities this week was about 0.8, it is being pulled down alongside the tech sector.
I believe that while flows into Bitcoin ETFs remain weak, strong growth in the crypto market is unlikely. The only notable buyer now is Strategy, which on Monday added 1,036 BTC at an average price of $79,012—above the current price—and that position is currently underwater. If the US core CPI prints at 0.3% or higher, I expect a move toward the 200-week moving average near $67,700. A soft report would produce only a bounce to $75,500 but would not change the balance of forces.
BitcoinThe nearest range runs between support at 74,100 and resistance at 74,500, and the plan is built around two mirrored directions with full breakout and rejection scenarios. A confident break above 74,500 opens the way to 75,000, where it is sensible to take profit and look for a short on the pullback; condition: price above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator above zero. If price drops below 74,100 but the downside breakout is not confirmed, and buyers quickly reclaim the level, buying is acceptable, with an initial target of 74,500 and a secondary target of 75,000.
Selling is mirrored: a confirmed close below 74,100 gives a short targeting 73,400, provided the 50-day average is above price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If the price rises to 74,500 but an upside breakout fails to hold, consider a short back to 74,100 and then to 73,400.
EtherThe logic fully mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale: the working range lies between support 2,084 and resistance 2,098. A break above 2,098 opens the way to 2,118, where it is sensible to take profit and look for a short on the pullback; condition: price above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator above zero. If price falls below 2,084, but the downside breakout is not confirmed, and buyers quickly reclaim the level, buying is acceptable, with targets at 2,098 and then 2,118.
Selling is possible on a confirmed close below 2,084 with a target of 2,067, provided the 50-day average is above price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If the price rises to 2,098 but an upside breakout fails to hold, consider a short back to 2,084 and then to 2,067. Both indicators serve only as filters to weed out false moves, not as standalone reasons to enter early, and decisions are made only after real price confirmation of the specified levels.