Interpretation of the GBP/USD Analysis for November 11. The Pound Is Correcting but Looks North

The GBP/USD currency pair also showed a downward movement on Tuesday, driven solely by the US inflation report. The British currency lost about 140 pips against the dollar in a few hours yesterday, and it seems to us that the market's reaction to inflation accelerating by 0.1%—stronger than expected—was excessive. However, this is far from the first time a minimal deviation from forecasts has provoked moves comparable to Federal Reserve meetings. As a result, we saw a second wave of sell-offs, on which the entire downward correction may conclude. Recall that on a longer-term view, sterling still looks upward after the price on the daily and weekly timeframes failed to break out of the sideways channel through its lower boundary. Thus, we now expect a rise toward the upper boundaries of both channels, giving traders a minimal upside target of 1.3650. Note also that correlation between the euro and the pound is currently nonexistent, and the pound trades much more logically and technically than the euro. Therefore, we can reasonably expect sterling to rise, at least within the global sideways channels.

Technically, the pound has shifted into a downward trend after breaching the ascending trendline. However, the current move is interpreted as a correction and therefore may end at any time. Higher timeframes support further gains for the pound.

On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were generated on Tuesday. First, the pair overcame the critical line, allowing traders to open short positions; then it broke through the 1.3358–1.3377 area, allowing shorts to be held. Ultimately, the 1.3301–1.3309 area held with minimal deviation, after which the pair rebounded. Accordingly, traders could have taken profits on shorts and opened longs.

COT reports for the British pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated the market with shorts throughout 2026. The net position is negative despite the maintenance of a long-term uptrend. Given events in the Middle East, it is unsurprising that demand for the dollar remains fairly high in 2026. The war between the US and Iran has been formally put on pause but could resume at any moment. The Fed's changed stance on monetary policy also supports the dollar, and the ascending trendline has been breached. However, it was breached within a flat, so we do not consider the uptrend finished.

In the long term, the dollar continues to weaken due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly visible on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies aim directly and indirectly to weaken the US currency. The long-term uptrend remains intact. According to the latest COT report (dated November 3), the "Non-commercial" group opened 7,100 BUY contracts and closed 12,500 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 19,600 contracts over the week.

On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD has entered a downward correction but still retains a bullish bias. On the daily and weekly timeframes, the pair is targeting 1.3650, which is the upper boundary of the sideways channel on the daily chart. Fundamental and macroeconomic reasons for the pound's rise are not necessary, since GBP/USD remains inside sideways channels on higher timeframes.

For November 11 we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3248, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. The Ichimoku Senkou Span B (1.3386) and Kijun-sen (1.3404) lines can also be sources of signals. It is recommended to move the Stop Loss to breakeven when the price moves 20 pips in the correct direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be considered when determining trade signals.

Today, no major events or releases are scheduled in the UK or the US, so traders will likely have little to react to. Recent geopolitical news also did not provoke a strong market reaction, as few believe the Middle East war is about to end.

Traders can consider the 1.3301–1.3309 area as a target for short positions in case of a rebound from the 1.3369–1.3377 area. A bounce from 1.3301–1.3309 would make 1.3369–1.3377 a target for long positions.