The resignation of U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will not happen—at least not in 2026, while Congress remains fully "red."
Yesterday, the House rejected Democrats' motion to impeach Mr. Hegseth over U.S. military operations in Iran, Yemen, and Venezuela. Clearly, Democrats sought to demonstrate several points at once. First, they intend to fight Donald Trump by all available means, and pursuing impeachment of him and his inner circle is a realistic possibility for 2027–2028. Second, Democrats will do everything possible to stop the war with Iran—for which Tehran may be grateful. The weaker Trump's support in Congress, the fewer levers he will have to maintain military pressure on Iran. Overall, Trump has already begun to soften his rhetoric toward Iran, understanding he cannot sustain the war indefinitely. Yet it is worth noting that Democrats have not fully moved to active measures. That the impeachment of the Defense Secretary would be rejected was clear even before the motion was filed: Congress still sits in its old composition, with Republicans holding majorities in both chambers. Naturally, Republicans blocked Hegseth's removal.
However, on January 3 the Congress will change color completely. Then the impeachment of any Trump ally could become reality. Only the Senate can block removal, since ousting a senior official requires a two-thirds majority in the upper chamber. I do not rule out, though, that some Republicans may side with Democrats after Trump's electoral defeat—at least on certain issues.
Yesterday polling also showed that 71% of Americans do not support the U.S. war with Iran and demand Congress end it. Surveys also indicate the new Congress is expected to repeal the import tariffs introduced by Donald Trump. Remember how often the president insisted foreign governments would pay tariffs levied on trade with the U.S.? In reality Americans pay them, because they are the end consumers who face tariffs embedded in product prices.
The most interesting part is just beginning. Next year large-scale fights between Democrats and Donald Trump will start, and how they end is hard to predict. It will be interesting to watch events unfold.
Other articles to read:
Analysis EUR/USD. November 11: EUR takes another blow
Wave analysis for EUR/USD
Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude the instrument remains within a global corrective A-B-C-D-E trend segment. However, this structure looks complete and may be finished. In my view, now is a good time not only to buy the European currency but also to expect a full bullish trend segment. On the higher timeframe, one should expect a rise of at least 1,700–1,800 pips. An unsuccessful attempt to break 1.1126, which corresponds to 50.0% on Fibonacci (lower chart, higher timeframe), also indicates market readiness to buy.
Wave analysis for GBP/USD
The wave picture for GBP/USD has become fairly clear. Charts show a distinct corrective A-B-C-D-E structure that may be complete. A similar structure on EUR/USD may also be complete. If that assumption is correct, Sterling has finished its decline and has begun building a bullish trend segment with targets above the peaks of waves B and D—i.e., above the 3,700-pip level. Three waves of the first wave of the new bullish segment are already formed. Consequently, the advance may continue toward targets near 1.3531 and 1.3651, which correspond to 76.4% and 100.0% on Fibonacci.
Key principles of my analysis:
1) Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are hard to trade and often change.
2) If you are not confident about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.
3) There is no such thing as 100% certainty in direction; do not forget stop-loss protective orders.
4) Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.