The test of the 1.1151 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the euro's downward potential. For this reason, no euro sell positions were opened.
However, the euro declined against the US dollar in the first half of the day, despite the final German inflation data and Italian statistics. The explanation lies in the US data. In Germany, the Consumer Price Index rose by 2.8% year-over-year in October, compared with 3.3% in September and 2.9% in August, while prices fell by 0.2% month-over-month. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) also stood at 2.8% year-over-year. The confirmation of the preliminary estimate came as no surprise, so its impact on the currency pair was minimal. Italian industrial production also exceeded expectations, increasing by 1.2% month-over-month in September against a forecast of 0.7%, following a 1.2% decline in August. However, this result went largely unnoticed amid developments in the US market.
US data and statements are putting much greater pressure on the euro. Core inflation in the US exceeded forecasts in October, while the Federal Reserve is already maintaining its interest rate at 3.75–4.00%, compared with the ECB's deposit rate of 2.50%. A quiet second half of the day, with no US economic releases scheduled, is unlikely to provide relief for risk assets, as the dollar remains the main factor influencing the euro. A review of Fed policymakers' statements over the past week reveals a clearly hawkish stance, which is likely to support the dollar. If these conditions persist, the euro is likely to remain under pressure, and only a significant shift toward more hawkish rhetoric from the ECB in Frankfurt could provide support.
Regarding the intraday strategy, the focus will primarily be on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches the 1.1146 level (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1166. At 1.1166, the position will be closed, and a reverse sell position will also be opened, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro could rise today if US economic data comes in weaker than expected. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from that level.
Scenario #2: The euro can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.1134 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The price could then rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1146 and 1.1166.
Sell SignalScenario #1: The plan is to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1134 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1113, where the position will be closed and a reverse buy position opened immediately, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level. Selling pressure on the pair could return if US economic data exceeds forecasts significantly. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from that level.
Scenario #2: The euro can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.1146 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The price could then decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1134 and 1.1113.
Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental data releases to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially when risk management principles are not followed and large position sizes are used.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.