Bitcoin continues to fall, and hopes for a "bull" trend are melting like mid-April snow. Last week the market endured another crash, and this week the decline continues. At present the move is still considered corrective, yet Bitcoin is sliding down more confidently despite regular pullbacks. Recall that the possibility the downtrend has ended exists. However, the reasons for a new "bull" trend still look ambiguous and debatable. The latest Bitcoin rise, which took three months, was essentially a move from the lower boundary of the sideways channel to the upper boundary on the daily timeframe after a deviation of the channel's lower boundary and the formation of a deviation of the upper boundary. The upper boundary deviation was deep, but if it is indeed a deviation, Bitcoin set course for $70,800. Digital gold returned to the sideways channel, so a move to its 50% level is more than natural and logical. In principle, Bitcoin has only $3k left to reach $70,800. What are $3k for digital gold?
All recent events and news have added pressure on the leading cryptocurrency and all its "younger brothers." How will Bitcoin react to the endless stream of negativity? Spot investments are falling, investors are withdrawing funds from ETFs, inflation is rising, central banks are taking an ever-tougher stance, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East persists, and the threats of quantum or AI hacks over Bitcoin are growing. And this is far from the full list of reasons for a possible fall of the leading crypto. Thus, we still do not see what will make Bitcoin rise in the remaining 1.5 months of 2026. The four-year cycle cannot work forever; all "Uptober" patterns and the idea that "Bitcoin always rises the year after the halving" no longer work, and miners continue to leave the crypto segment in favor of the AI sector.
General BTC/USD picture on 1D
On the daily timeframe, the downtrend structure is broken, so perhaps digital gold has officially begun forming a new "bull" trend. However, price consumed the bearish FVG from the previous trend, reacted to that pattern, and a correction began. The breakout beyond the September sideways channel $60,000–$82,500 may be a deviation, which, together with reactions to two bearish FVGs, could provoke a fall toward the lower boundary of the sideways channel. Last week Bitcoin corrected to the nearest bearish FVG and received a vivid reaction with the formation of a new sell signal. Thus, we still do not believe that the bearish trend and the flat are finished.
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General BTC/USD picture on 4H
On the 4-hour timeframe the formation of a bearish structure continues. The CHOCH line currently sits at $81,200. On the daily TF all necessary sell reversal signals were produced, allowing traders to open short positions. Bitcoin's targets are best determined by the daily sideways channel, which, in our view, remains relevant. On the 4-hour TF the trend structure is bearish, and on the daily TF Bitcoin reacted to another bearish pattern. A new drop did not take long to arrive... After that, another bearish FVG was formed, to which price failed to fully correct. A reaction to it may provoke a new decline.
Trading recommendations — BTC/USD
Bitcoin attempted to start a new uptrend, but the fundamental backdrop, spot demand, and recent news are too negative to count on its continuation. In the near term, on the daily, the TF Bitcoin may remain in decline, since the price has already reacted to three bearish FVGs and formed a bearish order block. A move outside the daily sideways channel is treated as a deviation. Thus, Bitcoin produced a reversal signal and set course for $70,800. We do not consider the bearish trend finished. Short positions are more relevant than longs in the near term. The most recent bearish FVG on the daily chart allowed formation of a new sell signal. On the 4-hour TF there is another bearish FVG, and a reaction to it will give traders an opportunity to open new short positions.
Illustration notes:
CHOCH—change of trend structure.
Liquidity—liquidity, stop losses, and pending orders market makers use to accumulate positions.
FVG—fair-value gap. A price-inefficiency zone that price traverses quickly, indicating the absence of one side of the market; thereafter price tends to return and react to such areas in continuation of the main trend.
IFVG — inverted fair-value gap. After returning to such an area, the price often does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests from the other side.
OB — order block. The candle where a market maker opened a position aiming to take liquidity to form a position in the opposite direction.