Stock indices are trading mixed today amid Jensen Huang's departure from Nvidia and in anticipation of US producer?price data. S&P 500 futures were little changed, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell about 0.3%. European contracts point to a lower open, and the MSCI Asia Pacific index was down 0.3% after rising nearly 1.1% in morning trade. Japanese and Australian government yields jumped following yesterday's Treasury sell?off.
Nvidia remains the top story. On Thursday, the stock fell more than 14%, but buyers trimmed losses to 4.3% by the close. The board has removed Huang as CEO; interim leadership will be assumed by CFO Colette Kress, and Huang will no longer be affiliated with the firm. For comparison, on November 9, the board only opened an investigation, and by the evening of November 11, shares had dropped nearly 10% on reports about potential successors. Now the resignation is confirmed, so attention turns to the Q3 report due next Tuesday. The tech sector already lost nearly 6.4% on the Nasdaq 100 a week earlier amid fears of tougher AI oversight, and yesterday only partially recovered.
The Fed interest rates are adding pressure. Two?year Treasuries, which are sensitive to Fed policy, rose 14 basis points on Thursday; oil extended a sell?off that began after the CPI release. Consumer prices in October rose 0.4% month?on?month versus a 0.3% forecast, and core CPI rose 0.3% versus an expected 0.2% — the third month in a row above forecasts. John Williams said on Thursday that inflation remains high and policymakers will need to act further. Markets now price 25?bp hikes in December, January and March.
The US PPI due later today will likely determine whether pressure on equities continues. The forecast for October is 0.4% m/m after 1.3% in September and 6.6% y/y after 6.3%; core PPI (ex food and energy) is expected at 0.3% m/m after 0.7%. Many experts believe a December hike is already priced in, so only a materially weaker print could change that; another hot number would push yields higher and add more pressure on stocks. Aside from Nvidia's report on Tuesday, markets are also watching the Anthropic IPO — with demand reportedly many times the supply — and CoreWeave's plan to raise at least $4 billion in investment?grade debt.
The Middle East remains a risk source. Yesterday, Trump said the US could manage without a deal with Iran, dampening hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the nine?month conflict. In commodities, Brent trades around $95.70/bbl, holding a 3.3% Thursday move. Gold bounced after three sessions of declines. Bitcoin fell below $68,000 for the first time since August as inflation and higher rates weigh on crypto.
All told, stocks remain under pressure heading into the weekend. I expect Nasdaq?100 futures to underperform the S&P 500 until Nvidia's report on Tuesday, and a hot PPI will deepen the slide. Only a materially weaker print would relieve pressure, and I see no reason to expect that yet.
Technical view on the S&P 500
Buyers' main task today is to overcome immediate resistance at $7,607. That would demonstrate strength and open the way to a push toward $7,633. Another priority for bulls is to hold above $7,656 to reinforce their position. On the downside, amid falling risk appetite, buyers must defend around $7,574. A break there would quickly push the instrument back to $7,544 and open the path to $7,518.