Bitcoin has got stuck below $70,000, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has entered the "extreme fear" zone. In early November, the index was around 26, 34, and about 25 — i.e., in the ordinary fear range — and the current drop shows sentiment has sharply deteriorated over the week. Traders joke that this is precisely where speculators usually start selling, and there is some truth in the joke, since the index records a decline that has already happened rather than guaranteeing a reversal. From the low of November 5 at $75,568, the instrument fell to $72,695 on November 10, and now the price is trading at the lowest levels since August 20, testing the 200-week moving average around $67,700 for support.
Several factors are putting pressure on the market. From October 30 to November 11, more than $2.5 billion left US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Just in the week of November 2–6, outflows reached $1.28 billion. At the same time, stablecoin supplies fell by $14.2 billion over 30 days, meaning there is less fresh liquidity for purchases. Bitcoin's correlation with US stocks has risen to the highest since May 2022, so any bad news for the Nasdaq immediately flows into crypto — as on November 5, when the Nasdaq 100 lost 6.4%, and Bitcoin plunged nearly 5.8% at the worst of the drop.
The next important milestone is ahead. This afternoon, the US will publish the Producer Price Index for October. The market expects a 0.4% monthly increase and 6.6% year-on-year after previous readings of 1.3% and 6.3%; core PPI (ex food and energy) is forecast at 0.3% month-on-month after 0.7%. In September, PPI unexpectedly rose 1.3% (vs. 0.5% expected), the largest increase since March 2022, and Bitcoin then briefly slipped below $80,000 (the low since September 18) before quickly returning to $81,000. The situation is tougher now because CPI in October beat forecasts for the third month in a row, and a 25-bp Fed hike on December 9 is already fully priced in.
That is why the danger is not the number itself but the divergence between the actual figure and the forecast. If PPI significantly exceeds 0.4% and core PPI tops 0.3%, yields and the dollar will rise, and the market will start pricing not only a 25-bp move in December but also the possibility of a larger step — which Waller has mentioned — plus additional hikes after March. For Bitcoin, which is tied to equities, that is a double blow; in such a scenario, a move to the 200-week average near $67,700 is likely, and if that zone is lost, the capitulation area around $64,500 could be reached. If instead the data come in well below expectations, yields and the dollar will retreat, fears about Fed hawkishness will ease, short sellers will be forced out, and Bitcoin could bounce to $70,400 and higher. However, with weak ETF inflows, such a rebound, in my view, would likely be short-lived.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is currently trading inside a range from $69,100 to $69,600, and the plan is built around two mirror scenarios with a full set of breakout and rejection outcomes. For long positions, I consider a breakout above $69,600 targeting $70,400, where I would take profits and possibly reverse into a short on the pullback, provided price stays above the 50-day SMA and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. If a break below $69,100 fails and proves to be a false breakout, a buy from that floor targets a return to $69,600 and then $70,400.
For short positions, the key is a confirmed break below $69,100 with a target of $68,100, provided the 50-day SMA sits above the price, and the Awesome Oscillator falls below zero. If the market cannot hold above $69,600, a rejection from the top opens a short back to $69,100 and then to $68,100.
Ethereum
The logic for Ethereum mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale. The range runs from $1,942 to $1,952; buys are considered after a breakout above $1,952 with a target of $1,979, where profits would be taken, and a short on the pullback may be allowed under the same 50-day SMA and Awesome conditions. A rejection at $1,942 on an unconfirmed downside breakout gives a buy first to $1,952 and then to $1,979.
For short positions, a confirmed break below $1,942 targets $1,912, provided the SMA is above price and Awesome is below zero. Alternatively, a rejection from $1,952 can lead to a fall back to $1,942 and then $1,912. Both indicators are used only as filters to weed out false moves and are not standalone entry signals — decisions should be made only after price confirms the levels indicated.