Fundamental Analysis, December, 30 / 2011

Reaches the last business day of the year in the markets that traditionally have no significant variations.

However, there is a more or less clear about the trends of major currencies, on their crosses against the dollar.

The euro ended the year at least more than one year, or at least very close to them. All in a European context is very messy, boring, and with clear signs that the leaders of the continent's dominant powers, namely Germany and France, not sure what to do with its partners failed to meet fiscal targets involved.

Lack of leadership has been evident in recent months, with peaks short of announcing the founding of a new continent on Earth. As obvious as the lack of expertise in the technical teams, specialists in markets, as often happens when you do not know what to do, has been behind events, and failed to predict absolutely nothing of what happened.

Greece, technically in default, word disguised by euphemisms that fail to prevent protests of the population, and that forced a change of government in advance, given that talk for much of the year, while neighbors grew equally "rogue" in deep concern fiscal matters.

Thus, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy and other countries with less weight in the context of Europe, like Hungary and Bulgaria, were headlines about the risk they represent the sovereign debt, or rather, about the creditworthiness of these nations to afford the payments on them.

The feeling is that for years was paid by one party, and financed by banks knew that they got, but confident that eventually, Germany, France, or whoever was going to take care of the problem.

Today, those banks equally responsible populist governments, many of which have already fallen or lost elections are battered on one side by the public, but protected by the European authorities, who fear chaos if they fall dragged by general the crisis.

Europe, therefore, not to assume that the debt contracted someone must pay, and governments that are and will be going soon, people would pay more taxes and adjust belts, and banks must be allowed a lot of money loss are who will assume the costs.

From the U.S. side, then the brown sugar in early August, when the government of President Obama was at times into internal default for a fight between legislators, seems to have taken a different path.

Against many odds, and after several months of no job creation, the last months had not only encouraging signs in this variable, which is undoubtedly the most important macro level but also in consumer confidence, housing sales , and the indicators by sector, ie industrial production, services, shopping, very slowly away from critical figures.

U.S. enters an election year, and that is synonymous with increased public spending. But with a war less, such as Iraq, which led the country to have an average of 50 to 60 billion monthly deficit, the cost does not seem so burdensome.

In a general improvement in the U.S. economy (which is still the number 1, and three times the number 2, which is China), to base a 2012 if not good, at least in transition.