The spot rate broke the intermediate support of its medium term channel at 1.2330 leading to an acceleration following significant downward revision of growth prospects by the ECB and by a series of Chinese disappointing economic indicators yesterday. At the same time, it evolves now in a short term bearish channel and tests the intermediate resistance of this one at 1.2300. A break of this level will allow it to reach the upper limit of its channel at 1.2340.
Technical indicators provide buy signals supporting the assumption of a pull back and it can support the assumption of a break of its resistance. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
In this case the best way to intervene in the market while limiting the risks, would be to try a “buy stop” in buying as soon as the spot rate is broken through its resistance of 1.2300 with the 1st objective at 1.2340 and then at 1.2360. A breakthrough 1.2280 will invalidate this scenario.