USD/CHF Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the USD/CHF pair was trading in a downward move, like we expected, developing impulsive (3) wave (coloured black) of the bigger 5 wave (coloured purple). During the Friday European and New York sessions we could observe a descending movement towards the 0.9500 level and we can consider this move as the end of the smaller 3 wave of the impulsive (3) wave (coloured black). Therefore, during the second half of the NY session this major pair started pushing higher and the price reached 0.9560 level. At the moment the USD/CHF pair is developing final 5 wave of the bigger (3) wave and we are expecting to see the price around 0.9475 level today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (0.9660-0.9538-0.9634), with Take Profit at 0.9457 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 0.9590 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the Swiss SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks, Retail Sales y/y and SVME PMI data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.9445 (S2) 0.9486 (S1) 0.9512 (PP) 0.9554 (R1) 0.9595 (R2) 0.9621 (R3) 0.9663
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 0.9540 with Stop Loss 0.9590 and Take Profit at 0.9457 are recommended.