The spot rate broke yesterday the intermediate resistance of its medium term bullish channel at 100.90 leading to an acceleration. A pull back to these levels is expected before reaching the upper limit of its channel at 101.50.
Technical indicators provide buy signals but approach overbuy zone supporting the assumption of a pull back in a short-term. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement. Furthermore, the spot rate broke the superior band supporting the hypothesis of a violent movement.
As the spot rate is currently testing the intermediate support of its channel, we suggest 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a rebound where we recommend a buy at the level of 100.90 with the 1st objective at 101.50 and then at 101.70. A breakthrough of 100.70 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its support where we advise a “sell stop” which means selling the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its support of 100.90 with the 1st objective at 100.20 and then at 100.00. A breakthrough of 101.10 will invalidate this scenario.