The US dollar index continues to move higher inside a short-term upward sloping channel and has reached the 38% retracement resistance of a decline from 99.80. The bounce in the US dollar index is not as strong as I expected. Bulls need to be very cautious.
The US dollar index has entered the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart. The price remains below the 38% retracement but also above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. As long as the US dollar index is above 96.15, a trend will remain neutral. A breakout above 97.50 will change the trend to bullish.
The weekly candle is testing the weekly kijun-sen resistance. The back test is unfolding as we expected, but bulls need to be very cautious in case we see a rejection. A rejection now will push prices even lower towards 92 where the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud is found. Important support and stop for longs is seen at 95.30.