According to Bloomberg, yesterday’s rise of the euro was amid rising house prices in the USA. S&P/Case-Shiller home price index in November was up 5.5% against revised 4.2%. Our concerns are due to volumes of falling were slightly lower than the volumes of rising. It means positions will be closed quickly before data on U.S. GDP is published.
Today at 14:00 GMT+4 Consumer Confidence in Eurozone in January is to be published. It is expected to be -29.9.
At 17:15 GMT+4 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in the USA in January will be revealed, forecast 165K against 215K in December. Here the first negative surprise can be expected as data may be lower than the forecast due to external borrowings were limited amid U.S. national debt was sky-high.
At 17:30 GMT+4 U.S. GDP Q4 is released. It is today’s major event. It is forecast to be 1.2% (against 3.1% in Q3). At the same time (17:30 GMT+4) Personal Consumption data in Q4 is issued, forecast for 2.1% vs. 1.6%. However, PCE Core is expected to down from 1.1% to 1%. At 23:15 GMT+4 FOMC Interest Rate Announcement is published. It is expected to be flat.
Fed in the latest survey forecast GDP growth in 2012 up to 1.7%-2%; it considered to be weak amid the latest increase. Today’s data will give an average yearly outcome of 1.9%, which cannot be met with investors’ optimism. In order to approach to the upper range of the Fed’s forecast (2%), data on Q4 should be no less than 1.6%. We assume this figure may provoke optimism and markets growth. Even it is so, in the preliminary reading when some figures for Q4 are not known, it is hardly possible. We expect markets will fall.
From the technical point of view, when 1.3458, the support on the H4, is broken, the target at 1.3408, the spot of confluence of trendline and the Krusenshtern line (blue sliding). If the price consolidates under it, then 1.3355 is the next target.