GBP/USD. Forecast for February 4, 2013

UK PMI manufacturing in January was 50.8 against 51.2 in December and forecast for 51.0. Amid weak US non-Farm Employment Change, the pound accelerated its downward move and lost 170 points.

Today at 15:30 GMT+4 UK PMI Construction in January is published. It is expected to be 49.7 vs. 48.7 in December. However, economic optimism indices in January differ from data on economic growth both in the USA and in Europe. That is why if data is optimistic, the correction will be short-term.

On the daily chart Friday’s candlestick pattern closed under the trendline and after consolidation under it on the H4, the downward movement may continue to the point of intersection of the level of Fibonacci 200% and the next support of the trendline. On the H4 this target coincides with the point of intersection of the level of Fibonacci 361.8% and red line of the Fibonacci channel. Intermediate target is 1.5676. Correction is probable to 1.5739, the point of inspection of trendline with slanting line of the Fibonacci channel.