Yesterday data on Germany and France was worse than economists’ forecasts. Germany Balance of Trade narrowed from €16.9 bln to €15.7 bln (poll €17.9bln). Industrial Production in France fell more than expected in January. Output dropped 1.2% in the month from December. Economists had expected a 0.1% drop. However, the euro grew moderately. Today UK and US data is expected to be weak. It is possible that the market will be bought against news. Tomorrow data on US Advance Retail Sales in February is released. It is forecast to be 0.5% vs. 0.1% in January. Probably, it will be the key event of the week, major investors have been preparing for it since Friday.
From the technical point of view, in order to continue growing the price has to test the area of resistance 1.3053/60, the high of March 11, which is conjunction of the Fibonacci level with the trendline on the daily chart. If the area of resistance is reached, the way to the level of Fibonacci 236% on the H4 and higher to 1.3133, the high of March 8, opens. In order to continue falling the price has to consolidate lower than the support of local price lows on the H4 1.2985, then the target is the support of trendline 1.2950.