On Friday the markets were bearish. US Retail Sales in March dropped 0.4% vs. forecast for being flat. Retail Sales Ex-Auto fell 0.4% vs. expectations for 0.1% decrease. JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo published reports on their performance. It was slightly better than expected, though the revenue dropped and earnings per share increased. Meanwhile, the governor of Cyprus’s central bank said the government is attacking his institution’s independence at the same time as his family endures death threats from people who lost money in the county’s bailout. By the end of Friday, S&P 500 had dropped 0.27%, gold lost 5.68%, oil fell 3.05%, the pound edged down 44 points, on the contrary the euro grew 13 points.
Today relevant information on China in March was published. GDP dropped 0.2% from 7.7% to 7.9%, against forecast for 8%. Industrial production fell from 9.9% to 8.9% annually (forecast for 10.1%).
North Korea celebrates the 101st birth anniversary of state founder Kim II Sung today. Diplomats in Pyongyang are now focusing on whether Kim will mark the April 15 anniversary by testing another missile or nuclear device.
At 13:00 GMT+4 Trade balance in Eurozone in February is published. It is estimated to be 9.9 billion euros vs. 9 billion in the previous month. At 16:30 GMT+4 NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index in April is issued. It is estimated to be 7.2 against 9.2 in March.
At the moment the price is in the area of uncertainty 1.3072-1.3140. If the upper testing level is broken the nearest target of 1.3160 opens. If the rate consolidates above it, the level of 1.3235 may be reached. It is resistance of the trendline on the daily chart. If the bottom testing level is reached, the first target is the low of April 12, 1.3037. If the rate consolidates under it, the following targets on the H4 open: 1.3004, 1.2990, and 1.2968.
In this case we consider the only positive piece of news on Trade Balance in the eurozone is not enough for the bullish scenario to develop.