GBP/USD. Forecast for May 21, 2013

Yesterday the pound added 88 points amid optimism on the Asian market. Today at 12:30 GMT+4 data on inflation in the UK in April is published. CPI is expected to be 0.4% vs. 0.3% in March (2.6% y/y vs. 2.8%), PPI Input is estimated to be -1.2% vs. -0.1%, Retail Price Index (y/y) is forecast to be 2.6% vs. 2.8%. Nationwide House Price Index is expected to grow 2.3% (y/y) vs. 1.9%. PPI Output is expected to grow 0.2% vs. 0.3%.

Thus, major indices CPI, PPI Input, and RPI are expected to fall and it may influence the pound.

Technically, after the testing level 1.5220 was broken, the first target 1.5185, the level of Fibonacci 23.6% on the H4, and the level of confluence of trendlines on the daily chart open, then 1.5157, the low of May 17, and the third target 1.5132. If data is unexpectedly high, a short-term rise to 1.5322/30, the levels of Kruzenshtern on the H4 (the highs of May 14 and 16 and trendline on the daily chart) may be observed.