The BoE yesterday left its monetary policy stance unchanged. However, investors felt Marc Carney's firm determination to unconditionally lower the interest rate in near future. The pound closed 207 points lower.
Today at 16:30 GMT+4 we expect the data on non-farm payrolls in the USA for June. Analysts project 165K against 175K in May. But as far as Wednesday's ADP payrolls were above the forecasts (188K vs 161K) and the unemployment claims declined for the 3d week, it is likely that non-farm payrolls would get over 200K. Consequently, the pound is expected to fall.
Technically, the pound’s decline could trigger a rebound from the price channel boundary on H4 (1.4980) which corresponds to the trend line strong support on the daily chart (1.4982) signifying the pound purchase on the news. In case the price goes down on H4 from the red channel, it is expected to near 1.4930/35 – the trend line support on the daily chart and Fibonacci 200% reaction on H4.