According to the latest estimates from investment strategists, the average target for the S&P 500 index at the end of 2026 stands at 7,555 points. Forecasts range from 7,000 to 8,100 points, implying bullish potential of about 9% from current levels.
Some forecasts exceed the consensus, pointing to levels around 7,700, which would represent nearly 11% growth. At the same time, analysts warn that the market could face a correction in the first half of 2026, especially if bond yields rise sharply amid concerns about overly accommodative monetary and fiscal policy.
Expectations for earnings remain the key source of optimism. Wall Street analysts suggest that S&P 500 earnings per share will reach $306 in 2026, up 12.5% from the current consensus estimate of $272.
Valuation metrics are likely to remain relatively stable. The forward P/E ratio is projected to stay close to its current level of about 22 by the end of 2026.
Goldman Sachs analysts cite several key drivers of earnings growth, including steady expansion of the US economy, a weaker dollar, and productivity gains linked to the adoption of artificial intelligence.
Beyond macroeconomic factors, the profitability of the index’s largest companies will continue to play a decisive role. The earnings of the seven largest constituents—Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Broadcom, and Meta—account for about 25% of total S&P 500 profits.
Goldman Sachs predicts earnings per share of around $305 in 2026, revenue growth of 7%, and moderate margin expansion. Most of this growth is expected to come from the largest high-tech companies, which already generate roughly a quarter of the index’s total profits and are projected to increase their contribution further as investments in artificial intelligence scale up.
Taken together, these estimates form a consensus view that the market’s bullish momentum will persist through 2026, despite potential bouts of volatility along the way.
Strategists also note that sustained growth in AI investment, combined with healthy performance in other sectors, could trigger nearly 20% of sell-offs of the index’s largest stocks in 2026.
The S&P 500 closed the Christmas week at 6,929.94 points.