China has become the main long‑term threat to SpaceX’s (NASDAQ: SPCX) dominance in the aerospace market. As Bernstein analysts note in their report, even given the company’s unquestioned leadership in satellite operations and reusable‑launch technology, Beijing’s ambitions can no longer be ignored.
The recent successful landing of the first stage of China’s Long March 10B rocket is the trigger for concern. The broker estimates that China hit this important milestone about six months ahead of schedule, clearly demonstrating an accelerated pace of development in the domestic space industry.
Bernstein acknowledges that the technological gap remains large. China’s Long March 10 booster still has to prove reusability in practice. By comparison, SpaceX has operated reusable Falcon 9 boosters for nearly a decade and completed 165 successful launches just last year. To pose real competition to Elon Musk, Chinese engineers will need to build high‑speed production from scratch and establish the processes for rapid turnaround and repeat launches.
Nevertheless, Beijing’s vast state resources make it the principal long‑term threat. China has set ambitious goals, including a crewed lunar landing by 2030 and deployment of a low‑Earth‑orbit group of more than 200,000 satellites.
Analysts emphasize that US‑China geopolitical rivalry has already transformed into a new space race. Over time, this is likely to benefit American manufacturers, as it will prompt Washington to step up support for SpaceX and other domestic players. Against this backdrop, Bernstein reaffirmed its Outperform rating on SpaceX shares and maintained a $239 price target. The firm still points to the fully reusable Starship system as the company’s key trump card.