Analysts polled by Bloomberg share the viewpoint that most countries will hardly get back on track in 2021. Moreover, most economies have to make huge efforts to revive from the pandemic-driven crisis. However, the US and China are rare exceptions. Specialists have already spotted the green shoots of recovery in the two largest global economies.
Experts at Bloomberg believe that the US owes its robust economic recovery to large-scale financial aid from the White House. Indeed, Washington has been pumping up the national budget with trillions of dollars. When it comes to China, efficient measures taken by Beijing against the coronavirus pandemic inside the country account for the economic success.
Interestingly, experts predict that the global economy could expand by 6.9% in annual terms in 2021. That would be the record GDP growth since the 1960s. However, not all countries will be able to afford such a rapid economic recovery, warn analysts. Apart from ailing emerging markets, some countries of the euro area such as France and Italy will also lag behind in terms of an economic recovery.
Experts reckon that for a lot of economies the path to pre-crisis levels will take as long as a few years. Analysts point out that the most vulnerable countries are those whose economies largely depend on the holidaymaking sector.
Bloomberg experts pinpoint two factors that contribute to a successful economic recovery: nationwide availability of the COVID-19 vaccines and monetary policy of a central bank. Bruce Kasman, a senior economist at JPMorgan Chase, exemplifies efficient policy decisions with appropriate moves of central banks in Russia, Turkey, and Brazil. These regulators cut key interest rates last year to support businesses during the crisis. Recently, the central banks again tightened their monetary policies in an effort to get down rising inflation and prevent a capital outflow, JPMorgan says.
Curiously, Bloomberg found out that even the economy of Russia is gaining momentum as the authorities are lifting coronavirus restrictions. Analysts expect the Russian economy to revive to the pre-pandemic levels in Q4 2021 as the country has suffered less damage from the coronavirus crisis than other economies.