Analysts contemplate that the world is unlikely to face a food crisis this year. However, in 2023, the situation may change dramatically. The world will have to deal with catastrophic food shortages if Russia cuts grain exports.
According to preliminary estimates, the crisis may start in Ukraine. It has already warned of big cuts to wheat harvest. Apart from that, India and the United States may also see a decrease in crops (food grains, cereals, oilseeds, etc.) due to prolonged droughts. If this scenario comes true, food prices will certainly soar. However, one should take such forecasts with a pinch of salt. Sometimes, they are made to boost hype and generate additional profit.
Economists suppose that India, the United States, and China will hardly face a devastating grain crisis as there are a lot of arable lands in these countries, with 40% equipped for irrigation. These acres are enough to grow vital products.
Before the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions, global agricultural producers had stocked up on fertilizers to increase yields. Therefore, food problems are unlikely to arise this year. People will see no food shortages this winter thanks to made inventories.
However, difficulties may begin next year. Such a scenario looks feasible if Russia stops exporting wheat and fertilizers. In this case, there will be big food shortages worldwide. As Russia produces 13% of the world's crop nutrients and accounts for almost 20% of the world’s wheat exports, there are practically no such countries that could replace it in the market.
There are no extra arable lands in the world as well. Russia is the only country that has plenty of them. In case of famine, developing countries will have to pay $400 for 1 ton of grain and $800 for 1 ton of fertilizers. Naturally, they will be unable to pay such astronomic prices. As a result, the world may face a food crisis and global famine with poor countries suffering the most.