The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations showed that business managers anticipate inflation will ease to 2.34% over the next two years by Q3 2026, down from 2.53% in the previous period and marking the lowest reading since Q4 2025. One-year inflation expectations also declined, slipping to 2.60% from 3.41% in Q1. By contrast, longer-term expectations firmed, with five-year inflation forecasts rising to 2.31% from 2.22%, and ten-year expectations edging up to 2.20% from 2.19%.
On monetary policy, respondents expect the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to increase to 2.73% by the end of the September quarter, up from 2.34%, and to climb further to 3.21% over the following year. The survey was conducted after the RBNZ’s monetary policy decision in May 2026.