Wheat futures declined toward $7.12 per bushel, the lowest level in three weeks, as renewed prospects for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire raised expectations of fewer disruptions to grain shipments from the Black Sea region. US President Donald Trump announced a halt to strikes on Russian and Ukrainian energy infrastructure. At the same time, Turkey is working to broker a broader agreement between Kyiv and Moscow that would end attacks on vessels in the Black Sea. Ukraine has signaled it would back such an arrangement if Russia agrees, and the Kremlin has responded positively to the proposal.
The potential for improved trade flows has increased downward pressure on wheat prices, which remain below the 3½-year high of $7.67 per bushel reached on August 28. Meanwhile, the latest USDA projections point to slightly above-average global wheat inventories. The agency also cut its 2026/27 wheat export outlook for Russia by 3 million metric tons to 43 million tons, and for Ukraine by 1 million tons to 12.5 million tons.