On December 11, 2025, the National Bank of Moldova reduced its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 5.0%. This marks the third rate cut implemented this year, as the bank continues its strategy of maintaining an accommodative monetary policy. In November, the annual inflation rate stood at 6.99%, which remains above the central bank's target of 5.0% ±1.5%. This inflationary pressure is largely attributed to regulated and food prices. However, inflation is projected to fall within the target range by December and remain near the lower bound through the first quarter of 2026.
The economy is experiencing continued positive growth, which supports the easing of monetary policy. Specifically, industrial production in September rose by 9.0% compared to the previous year, while both exports and imports grew by 23.1% and 21.2%, respectively. Although the external environment is largely stable, there remain risks associated with energy, food, and geopolitical developments. Overall, the risks to inflation are leaning towards disinflation, underscoring the importance of sustaining an accommodative policy stance to achieve the central bank's medium-term inflation goals.