The Chicago Business Barometer declined to 49.2 in April 2026 from 52.8 in March, falling short of market expectations of 53 and indicating a contraction in business activity. The downturn was largely attributed to rising energy costs stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, which contributed to decreases in order backlogs, new orders, supplier deliveries, and production. In contrast, employment improved over the month. The prices paid index rose to its highest level since June, reflecting increased costs for oil, metals, and transportation fuel surcharges.