Today, at the beginning of the trading session, the market got stuck. Dynamic of the main currency pairs hardly exceeds 10 pips. The fact is that today, the US will publish a bulk of information and investors prefer to remain cautious until then. In addition, the US trading week ends today as tomorrow, the country will celebrate Thanksgiving Day and Friday will be a shortened day. That is why any mistake may cost a lot and there will be no time to improve the situation.
Traders are mainly focused on the US durable goods orders. The report will drop a hint about a further change in consumer activity that is the main driver of the US economy. Economists suppose that durable goods orders may advance by 0.3%. Against this background, the US dollar is likely to go on rising.
If the forecasts come true, it will be very difficult to curb the greenback’s rally. Other data will hardly affect the market situation. For example, the second GDP estimate for the third quarter is expected to meet the previous one. Thus, the economic growth may slacken to 4.9% from 12.2%. Although it is a significant slowdown, investors have already priced it in.
The US will disclose its unemployment claims figures today because the celebration of the national holiday will take place tomorrow. However, the data will neither influence the market sentiment. The number of first-time claims may decline by 4 thousand, whereas the number of continuing claims may inch down by 10 thousand. In other words, the overall number of claims will remain unchanged.
The US new home sales data is the only information that may disappoint market participants. The indicator may decline by 2.0%. However, this report is of minor importance compared to durable goods orders. The new home sales figures may only affect the magnitude of the US dollar appreciation, but it is unlikely to happen. The fact is that the anticipated drop will follow a jump of 14.0%.
Let us take a look at the trading charts ahead of the publications.
A decrease in the euro/dollar pair slackened near the low of 2021. As a result, the pair stagnated within the range of 1.1225/1.1275. Although we see a short-lived pause, bears are still keeping control over the market. This is proved by a stable downtrend that began in early June. Since then, the pair has lost over 1,000 pips.
It is quite possible that the pair’s fluctuation between the levels of 1.1225 and 1.1275 will lead to an accumulation process.
If the predictions come true, traders are better to apply a breakout strategy.
Buy positions could be opened, if the price consolidates above 1.1280.
Sell orders could be initiated below 1.1215.
Meanwhile, the pound/dollar pair resumed falling after an insignificant rebound. As a result, the pair slid to the support level of 1.3400, thus boosting the downtrend. In addition, shadows of the candlesticks touched the local low of 1.3350 logged on November 12. This, in turn, led to a drop in the volume of short positions. After that, the pair rebounded and slowed down.
If the price fixes below 1.3350 at least on the four-hour chart, it is likely to go on losing value. Otherwise, it may return to the level of 1.3400.