Gasoline futures for delivery in New York Harbor climbed toward $4.50 per gallon in late April, reaching their highest level since July 2022, as persistent supply disruptions in the Middle East curtailed crude availability for refiners. While a ceasefire has largely held since early April, efforts to revive peace talks related to the Iran conflict have stalled. A US-led blockade continues to intercept and redirect sanctioned vessels in the Arabian Sea, and Iran has tightened its control over the Strait of Hormuz, with recent reports of gunfire involving commercial ships.
As a result, traffic through this critical chokepoint has dropped to near zero, severely disrupting a route that typically handles about 20 million barrels per day of oil and refined products. The US crackdown on Iranian crude has also intensified supply strains for Chinese “teapot” refiners—independent processors that had been largely insulated from earlier disruptions due to their heavy dependence on Iranian feedstock—until mid-April.