Palladium futures declined to around $1,170 per ounce, marking a one-year low, as a stronger US dollar and elevated Treasury yields weighed on the market while investors awaited US payrolls data for further guidance on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The dollar advanced to a 17-month high and 10-year Treasury yields climbed to their highest level since 2002, making dollar-denominated metals more expensive for overseas buyers and diminishing the appeal of non-yielding assets.
At the same time, expectations of softer automotive demand and a shift toward a market surplus—driven by declining gasoline vehicle production and increased recycling—have added to the longer-term downward pressure on palladium. On the supply side, reduced mine output, particularly from Russia, is expected to curb further price declines, though higher recycling volumes are likely to offset part of this reduction. Year to date, palladium is down 28.40%.