Arabica coffee futures climbed to about $2.95 per pound, their highest level since mid-February, as traders assessed a series of supply-side risks, from disruptions linked to the Middle East crisis to weaker export flows from Brazil. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up global shipping, insurance, and fuel costs, putting additional pressure on coffee importers and roasters. At the same time, data from Brazil’s Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex) showed a year-on-year decline in coffee exports in February, a development that could temporarily tighten global availability.
Attention is now turning to production prospects over the next few seasons. Brazil’s Conab recently forecast a record 66.2 million-bag harvest for 2026/27, and expectations are building that 2027/28 output could surpass 80 million bags, assuming the absence of severe weather events such as frosts or droughts.