Arabica coffee futures climbed to about $3.10 per pound, their highest level since early February, driven by signs of tightening near-term supply in top producer Brazil and persistent external risks. Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative, projected that exports will decline by 10% in 2026 to roughly 4.4 million bags, down from 4.9 million in 2025. This short-term supply reduction stems directly from the smaller 2025 crop, which is expected to constrain export volumes in the first half of 2026, even though prospects for the subsequent harvest remain positive.
At the same time, traders noted that farmers are still withholding sales in anticipation of higher prices, further curbing available supply. Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding global trade flows, including risks to key logistics routes and rising transportation costs, are also underpinning the market and helping to keep prices elevated.