The Ibovespa tumbled 2.3% to 176,219 on Friday, marking its fourth consecutive weekly decline amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. The move signals a structural shift toward pricing in global geopolitical shocks, as the real slumped and long-term interest rates broadly climbed.
Although the BCB had already delivered a smaller-than-expected 25 basis point rate cut, the outlook for additional monetary easing has deteriorated, with war-driven energy costs pushing inflation projections further from the 3% target.
Major banks were hit hard: Santander and Itaú Unibanco each fell around 2%, while B3 SA – Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão dropped more than 4%. Even commodity heavyweights Vale and Petrobras were not spared from the broad risk-off mood, slipping 2.1% and 2.6%, respectively, as traders assessed the prospect of prolonged disruptions to global trade flows.