On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD continues to form a downward trend, and the Fed has strongly supported the southbound move. The ECB should have supported the euro last week when it raised rates for the second time in 2026, but the market now focuses primarily on the Fed and its tightening. Thus, the dollar has effectively formed a bona fide trend out of thin air, and market sentiment may remain bearish going forward.
For September 22 we highlight the following trading levels — 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362–1.1368, 1.1461–1.1473, 1.1536–1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657–1.1665, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830–1.1837, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1555) and the Kijun-sen (1.1505). The Ichimoku lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Remember to move the Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the correct direction — this will protect against losses if the signal proves false.
On Tuesday, the economic calendars for the euro area and the US are nearly empty, so traders will again have little to react to. We therefore expect low volatility and sideways price action today.
Trading recommendations:Today, traders may consider short positions targeting 1.1362–1.1368 if price consolidates below 1.1461–1.1473. A bounce from the 1.1461–1.1473 zone would allow you to open long positions targeting 1.1527–1.1542. Volatility may again be low today.
Explanations for Illustrations:Support and resistance price levels are thick red lines where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.
The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.
Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on COT charts shows the size of the net position of each category of traders.