The test of the price at 1.3585 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just starting to move below the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair dropped by more than 100 pips.
Weak UK labor market data released yesterday triggered a noticeable decline in the national currency's value. Investors and analysts were concerned that the data suggested a slowdown in job growth and possibly an impending recession, which put direct pressure on the British pound. Key indicators, such as the increase in unemployment benefit claims and the slowdown in wage growth, came in worse than expected. These figures present a troubling picture for the British economy, which is already facing several challenges, including high inflation and political uncertainty.
Today, pressure on the pair may persist. If the consumer price index shows a sharp decrease, this will indicate a reduction in inflationary pressure, which in turn may prompt the Bank of England to adopt a softer monetary policy. A similar impact will come from a decline in retail sales indices. If the British start spending less, it could signal a weakening of consumer demand, which is not a positive sign for the economy and, consequently, for the British pound. Producer price index (PPI) data will provide insights into how much raw materials and components are increasing in price. If this indicator begins to decline, it may suggest a forthcoming reduction in inflation of end products.
Pokiaľ ide o intradenné obchodovanie, plánujem postupovať na základe scenárov č. 1 a č. 2.
Scenario 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3565 (green line on the chart) with a target growth to the level of 1.3585 (thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 1.3585, I will exit from the long position and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Growth in the pound today can only be anticipated after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3552 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.3565 and 1.3585.
Predajný scenárScenario 1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking the level of 1.3552 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3534 level, where I plan to exit the short position and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers of the pound will show themselves when data is poor. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3565 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.3552 and 1.3534.
Tenká zelená čiara predstavuje vstupnú cenu, za ktorú môžete kúpiť obchodný nástroj;
Hrubá zelená čiara je odhadovaná cena, pri ktorej môžete nastaviť take profit alebo manuálne vybrať zisky, pretože ďalší rast nad túto úroveň je nepravdepodobný;
Tenká červená čiara označuje vstupnú cenu, pri ktorej môžete obchodný nástroj predať;
Hrubá červená čiara je odhadovaná cena, pri ktorej môžete nastaviť take profit alebo manuálne vybrať zisky, keďže ďalší pokles pod túto úroveň je nepravdepodobný;
Indikátor MACD sa používa pri identifikácii prekúpených a prepredaných zón s cieľom urobiť rozhodnutie o vstupe na trh.
Dôležité: začínajúci forexoví obchodníci by mali robiť rozhodnutia o vstupe na trh veľmi opatrne. Aby ste predišli prudkým cenovým výkyvom, je najlepšie nevstupovať na trh pred zverejnením dôležitých fundamentálnych správ. Ak sa rozhodnete obchodovať počas zverejňovania správ, vždy nastavte príkazy stop, aby ste minimalizovali straty. Bez príkazov stop môžete rýchlo prísť o celý svoj vklad, najmä ak nevyužívate money management a obchodujete veľké objemy.
Nezabúdajte, že na úspešné obchodovanie potrebujete jasný obchodný plán, ako je napríklad ten, ktorý je uvedený vyššie. Prijímanie spontánnych obchodných rozhodnutí na základe aktuálnej situácie na trhu je pre intradenného obchodníka vo svojej podstate stratová stratégia.