FX.co ★ Jackroay | GBP/USD

I see the GBP/USD pair maintaining a sluggish bearish structure on the hourly timeframe after price once again approached the 1.3643 resistance zone and failed to secure a confident breakout above it, which tells me that sellers are still trying to defend the upper boundary despite weakening downside momentum. I notice that the repeated rejection from this resistance area is creating conditions for what I consider a potential third bearish wave from the 1.3632 region, although I also recognize that this setup is becoming less convincing because I already see the market bouncing from the same level for the second time without producing a strong impulsive decline. I believe this hesitation in bearish pressure suggests that buyers are still active beneath the market, especially as price action continues to avoid aggressive breakdowns and instead forms relatively shallow pullbacks. I am still focusing on short positions from current levels because I think the structure technically favors another attempt toward the 1.3577 support zone, where I expect liquidity and buyer interest to appear again. I believe that if the pair reaches 1.3577 and forms a stable rebound, the market could quickly recover toward the 1.3657 resistance area, since the broader bullish pressure has not completely disappeared from the chart. I also think that the behavior around 1.3577 will be critical because a confirmed breakout below this support could significantly strengthen bearish momentum and open the path toward the deeper 1.3451 target. I notice that the RSI indicator continues to support bullish pressure instead of confirming aggressive selling, which tells me that the market still has internal strength despite the slow bearish structure. I also see the MACD indicator showing increasing volume and strengthening momentum on the bullish side, and I think this divergence between price action and indicators increases the probability of false downside moves before any larger directional expansion occurs.

I see GBP/USD entering a very complicated and sensitive zone near the top of the current bullish structure, and I personally do not feel comfortable buying directly into these highs while momentum is visibly slowing near the 1.3630 H4 resistance area. I notice that the market has already tested this resistance multiple times, yet I still do not see the kind of aggressive bullish expansion that would normally accompany a clean breakout before the weekly close. I believe the lack of fresh momentum is becoming increasingly obvious because price continues to hesitate near resistance while candlesticks leave long upper shadows, and I interpret this as a sign that buyers are struggling to maintain control at elevated levels. I also see the Ichimoku structure warning about possible exhaustion because the price has stretched too far away from both the Tenkan and Kijun lines, and I think the market is becoming technically overheated after such a strong upward movement. I expect that a corrective pullback toward the 1.3600 area would actually make sense from a technical perspective because I believe the market needs to rebalance before attempting any new impulsive movement higher. I also think next week could become decisive for the broader direction because I currently see two realistic scenarios developing from this structure. I believe the first scenario involves a false breakout above the recent highs, which could trap late buyers before triggering a deeper pullback toward the 1.3550 support region. I also consider the possibility that the pair may simply remain trapped beneath resistance for an extended period if buyers continue losing momentum and fail to attract enough volume for continuation. I notice that despite the bullish trend remaining technically intact on higher timeframes, the short-term price action is no longer showing the same confidence it had earlier in the rally. I think the repeated formation of long upper wicks reflects growing seller participation and profit-taking near resistance, which increases the probability of consolidation or correction rather than immediate continuation higher. I remain cautious for now because I believe entering positions before Monday could expose traders to unnecessary volatility and false signals near the weekly close, so I would rather wait for fresh market confirmation at the start of the new trading week before committing to a stronger directional bias.