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CL/Crude Oil

#CL Timeframe H4

CL/Crude Oil

Based on the #CL (Crude Oil) chart on the H4 timeframe, the current condition still shows a bearish tendency although in the short term there are indications of weakening selling pressure after the price entered a key support area. The price movement over the past few weeks has shown a shift in market character from a bullish phase that pushed the price towards the 107-110 area to a quite aggressive correction phase. The current price structure is dominated by the formation of lower highs and lower lows, which are the main characteristics of a downtrend in technical analysis. From a Moving Average perspective, the price is currently moving below the MA100 and MA200. This position signals that the medium-term and long-term momentum is still under the control of sellers. The MA100, shown by the blue line, has been declining and is below the MA200 in some parts of the recent movements, indicating that the previous bullish strength dominating the market has lost its momentum. Meanwhile, the MA200, shown by the red line, is also starting to move flatter and tend to decline, indicating that the downtrend is starting to affect a larger price structure. One interesting aspect of this chart is the presence of a clear horizontal support area. The nearest support is around the level of 85.97. The price briefly broke below this area and made a new low before a buying reaction emerged, leading to a bounce. This reaction indicates that there is still buying interest in that area, making the level of 85.97 a crucial zone that will determine the next price direction. If the price manages to stay above this area, the possibility of an upward correction or short-term recovery will increase. Below that level, there is a stronger support around 83.05. This area is a major support that could become the next target if selling pressure increases again and the price fails to hold above 85.97. A valid breakthrough below 83.05 will strengthen the bearish signal and open up further downside potential towards lower psychological areas. Therefore, this level can be considered as the last line of defense for buyers in the current price structure. On the horizontal resistance side, the area of 89.72 is the first obstacle to watch. This level is currently near the price and serves as the initial boundary for short-term recovery efforts. If the price manages to break above and stay above 89.72, the chances of an increase towards the next resistance at 96.98 will increase. The 96.98 zone holds significant technical meaning as it is close to the position of the MA200 and has previously acted as support before being breached downwards. The next resistance levels are at 99.41 and 102.67. Both areas are strong supply zones and have been reversal points in several previous occasions. To change market sentiment from bearish to bullish, the price needs to break through these levels and move steadily back above the MA100 and MA200. Until these conditions occur, any increase can still be considered a correction within a larger downtrend. From the latest candlestick structure, it can be seen that after strong selling pressure, signs of price stabilization are emerging. The recent candles show rejection of the lowest area, indicating that sellers are starting to lose some momentum. However, there is still no strong reversal signal as the price is still moving below the two main moving averages. Therefore, market participants need to wait for further confirmation through breaking the nearest resistances before concluding that the downtrend has ended. Overall, the technical analysis of #CL on the H4 timeframe is still dominated by a bearish bias. The price position below the MA100 and MA200, along with lower highs and lower lows structure, indicate that selling pressure is still a major factor in the market. The 85.97 area is a key support being tested, while 89.72 is the initial resistance that needs to be breached to open up recovery opportunities. As long as the price remains below 96.98 and the two main moving averages, the downtrend still has a higher probability of continuing. However, if the support at 85.97 holds and is followed by breaking the nearest resistances, the chances of a stronger rebound phase will begin to increase in the coming trading sessions.
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